State departments of transportation (DOTs) face a complex landscape, complicated by challenges like the COVID-19 pandemic, requiring a careful balance between long-term planning and immediate operational needs. Since 2004, the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) has actively supported agencies by developing tools and reports such as VisionEval and scenario planning guidebooks. Additionally, the Transportation Research Board (TRB) highlighted the need for agility and preparedness by organizing scenario planning conferences in 2016 and 2022, underscoring the importance of being ready for disruptions. Numerous NCHRP research efforts have contributed to preparedness, focusing on scenario planning, including: NCHRP Project 08-36/Task 113, “The Future of Transportation Planning in State DOTs” NCHRP Project 08-36/Task 145, “Scenario Planning Lite” NCHRP Project 08-93, “Managing Risk Across the Enterprise: A Guidebook for State Departments of Transportation” NCHRP Project 20-126 (01), “Programmatic Issues of Future System Performance” NCHRP Project 08-154, “Guidance for Agencies to Incorporate Uncertainty into Long-Range Transportation Planning” Despite the availability of resources, the adoption of scenario planning has been slow, largely due to a lack of expertise, capacity, and executive focus. These gaps hinder the effective navigation of the rapidly changing transportation landscape. Moreover, state DOTs face challenges in keeping pace with these changes, highlighting the growing importance of scenario planning. The objective of this research is to develop targeted activities and resources that will facilitate improved decision-making and encourage greater adoption of scenario planning methods by state DOTs. In developing these activities and resources, the following considerations should be addressed. Comprehensive coverage: While a variety of tools and resources exist for scenario planning, current materials often fail to support decision-making at all levels within a state DOT. Clear outcomes: Despite multiple initiatives, the outcomes of scenario planning are often unclear, partly due to a limited understanding of its benefits. Uniform adoption: Scenario planning has not been uniformly adopted across or within state DOTs, and the barriers to adoption are not always well understood. Varied sophistication: The level of sophistication in scenario planning varies significantly across and within organizations.
