Specifications include, but are not limited to: Prepare a report that provides a comprehensive picture of the 10-year peak electrical demand forecast on a seasonal basis for the State of Maine. This will include forecasts for: weather and climate; transportation electrification; flexibility in future load; building electrification; distributed solar/wind and storage; and peak load forecast. Provide a statewide forecast based on a bottom-up methodology taking into consideration heat pump (HP) and electric vehicle (EV) adoption based on regional market trends and incentive availability. The analysis should be broken down regionally, by utility service territory and identifiable load pockets. Consider the impact of the forecast on efficiency investments, including the offsetting impacts of Distributed Energy Resources (DER), flexible load, energy efficiency programs; peak shaving rate designs, Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) and similar initiatives. Include as distribution planning “inputs” into the feeder level forecast historical loads: summer peak; winter peak; and load minimums. These should include high, base, and low variations of scenarios. Compare the Maine specific forecast to the ISO-NE regional forecast CELT 2023 which incorporated state policy goals as its inputs. Participate in a kick-off meeting with the Office, at which time a work plan and project schedule will be developed. The successful bidder will remain in contact with Office staff through regularly scheduled calls and monthly status reports. Identify, review, collect, and combine secondary data that is relevant to the development of the Maine load, including data from Efficiency Maine Trust (EMT), the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the Maine Climate Council, and the U.S. Department of Energy, Maine Department of Environmental Protection, and other sources as appropriate. Identify any primary data requirements that are necessary or convenient to complete the peak load forecast and, as appropriate, develop a plan to collect such primary data. The primary focus is on Maine-specific data. Include express references to challenges facing the industry such as: uncertain demand patterns, shifting behaviors; data collection; DER integration – intermittent and variable; regulatory environment – tariffs, incentives, regulations, policies; scenario design – new planning paradigms and skills; lack of standards unifying load forecasting methodologies.
