PROJECTIONS. One projection, with three separate reports per agency, shall be due on November 5th of each year. Projections are presented in a monthly array, reflected for 120 months following the date of the projection by gender group. Projections shall be accompanied by population trace vectors to include population movement from adjudication to prison, from parole to prison, from prison to parole, from prison to discharge, and from parole to discharge. Projections should be performed to align with the state fiscal year. The report must include background information on ten-year population projections, national averages, population, crime rate, and other factors that contribute to the calculations. The report should report on justice law reforms, new commitments, and factors and trends that are influencing crime in Nevada and the population projections. The report must include data and trends on the comparison between the US and Nevada on population, and crime rates. The reports must include a section on the accuracy between population and projection of the prior year’s report. Trends in admission between male and female populations, trends in parole release rates, trends in length of stay, key population assumptions, including future release rates, future admission counts, and future parole revocation, and parole violators. The projections must also be accompanied by a detailed summary of the major assumptions, methodology, and changes in performance of projections underpinning the estimates, and a 95% confidence interval of the estimates.
