Task 1: Technical potential analysis The selected Contractor will conduct a bottom-up analysis of the technical potential for load management in the Commonwealth in the short-, medium-, and long-term. The Contractor’s main responsibilities will include but may not be limited to the following: • Define the scope of behind-the-meter technologies considered in this bottom-up analysis (e.g., electric vehicles, space and water heating, building envelope and energy efficiency, commercial and industrial loads, behind-the-meter energy storage, etc.) • For each technology, develop appropriate assumptions on adoption rates, load shape, technical capacity to shift or curtail consumption, etc. As much as possible, these assumptions should be based on existing data and be specific to the Commonwealth context (e.g., CECP adoption pathways for heating and transportation electrification) • Define high- and low-flexibility scenarios for calendar years 2030, 2040, 2050 • In each scenario and study year as provided for above, model the maximum potential for load management technologies to reduce both transmission- and distribution-level peak electricity demand. This may include a spatial analysis of distribution-level peaks but could be limited to an analysis of system and distribution peak coincidence • Based on this analysis and any associated sensitivities, identify any gaps in current technological capabilities that would benefit from targeted innovation and provide a list of potential policy or technology development actions that could help maximize the technical potential of load management for the Commonwealth Task 2: Cost-Benefit Analysis The selected Contractor will conduct an economic analysis to estimate the costs and benefits of using load management to support the Commonwealth’s energy decarbonization, affordability, resiliency, and equity goals. The Contractor’s main responsibilities will include but may not be limited to: • Construct a state-level load management capacity supply curve for each scenario and study year using estimated levelized costs for each technology (including the estimated cost of any incentives, upfront costs, and program administration costs) • Identify and quantify the benefits (both rate and non-rate impacts) of load management in the Commonwealth, including potential climate, resiliency, and equity benefits
