A. Retail: Using the Primary Trade Area (PTA); Secondary Trade Area (STA); Tertiary Trade Area (TTA); and the Gaithersburg Submarket Boundary defined in the 2017 Montgomery County Retail Study, complete a market study to understand the current supply and demand conditions for the City’s market capacity. The analysis should include a leakage analysis to determine what, if any, retail or other commercial demand is not being met locally. The Leakage/Surplus analysis should include at a minimum analysis of the retail subsectors: i. GAFO ii. Neighborhood goods and services iii. Food and Beverage Further, the chosen Consultant will describe the current retail trends affecting consumer spending and identify projected shifts in retail spending that could shape retail centers and developments by commercial property class in the next 15 years. This review should include an assessment of key, local economic factors such as, but not limited to: Household income; Employment Growth; Consumer Spending Patterns, and Population Growth. Identify physical (land area) constraints that inhibit or support changes in the market. Lastly, quantify the future demand and supply for the retail subsectors listed above to 2030 and 2040 in terms of nonresidential square footage in each of the above-named trade areas; quantify the City’s capture rate and square footage for each subsector. B. Employment Sectors: Review and quantify the employment growth sectors defined in VEDA and any other preliminary set of target industries identified by the chosen Consultant to determine their feasibility as a future growth option to 2040. The report should analyze critical location factors that are important to industry leaders as they make location decisions, align industries to the demographic strengths of Gaithersburg, and provide a recommended set of industry employment sectors to pursue for redevelopment in the City’s employment nodes. Consideration factors should include but are not limited to workforce characteristics, costs, infrastructure, market access, and proximity to inputs. This analysis should include industry trends that might affect local real estate needs, business site selection criteria, and location decisions, and take into consideration population and job forecasts for the City. The analysis should identify risk factors that have the potential to cause disruptive changes in the local and regional labor market and quantify potential impacts. C. Multifamily Rental: Determine the market area for multifamily rental units; forecast supply and determine a capture rate for the City; compute an estimate of the demand for new multifamily rental units in the City; identify and quantify physical (land area) constraints that affect future supply. The demand estimate should measure multifamily rental demand to 2030 and 2040, including by unit bedrooms and commercial rental property class. Based on population or other factors’ trends, how is demand likely to evolve? What are the primary drivers of demand and how much is driven locally vs. from in-migration from other markets and/or what percent of households requiring two (2) or more bedrooms prefer multi-family rental over alternative housing typologies such as rental towns? As this demand analysis is a measurement of the overall multifamily rental market, it is based on the overall inventory and pipeline of multifamily rental housing rather than specific income targets. This supply and demand estimate should consider and quantify: i. Employment and population forecasts and their impact on future housing needs, including risk factors with potential for major disruption; ii. Renter household projected growth during forecast period, including trends in renter household size; iii. Historic absorption and vacancy trends, including by commercial property class; iv. Recent trends in tenure that may increase/decrease demand for rental units and by unit bedrooms; v. Pipeline analysis of estimated additions to the rental market (units under construction, approved, or proposed) also including the replacement of existing rental units from the inventory and consideration of any current excess vacant supply based on a balanced market vacancy rate; and vi. The demand estimate should be presented in terms of the number of rental units and by bedroom sizes needed for the City market area to be balanced overall. D. In addition to the Comprehensive Final report, the chosen Consultant is expected to present the report to the Mayor and City Council and Planning Commission during an in-person joint work session. The Final Report is to be in both PDF and Word format. The work session materials are to include a Consultant-developed presentation in Powerpoint format. E. Progress meetings with City staff to discuss the status of the project, seek any guidance, clarification, or information, and discuss any issues or concerns regarding the project are expected. These meetings may be virtual (Microsoft Teams) and scheduled on an as-needed or agreed upon basis. All data collected, the Final Report and presentations are the property of the City of Gaithersburg.
